The massed Russian Forces on the border prior to the conflict, reminds me of the Mexican-US war. Huh? War comming? Jeez, we didn't know.
My opinion, this is a move by Putin (yeah I know but...) to re-establish the Russian military prowess both to impress his possible admirers (and nationals) and to deter any offer of NATO membership to the southern provinces.
I believe this is going to be another "psst ant" conflict we were so used to during the Cold War. The difference with the modern world is petroleum. The area has a major pipe-line for the area. If Russia gains control, (through a puppet gov.) they can threaten many of their old republics. Give me 3 weeks, and I can be a genius on this. Hindsight etc.